RAND Forecasting Initiative

2021 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.034982
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.5086
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.827706
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.002596
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	0.327205
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.040943
Feb 3, 2022 02:00PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	0.095386
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.027128
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.466369
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM	How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021	-0.072663
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.155656
Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.17322
Jan 4, 2022 01:16PM	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	0.023604
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.005082
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.062992
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.026644
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.644833
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	0.30952