RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)	0.001514
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	-0.000016
Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022)	0.000927
Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2022 and Nov 17, 2022)	0.000813
Oct 31, 2022 01:49PM	How many U.S. teams will be named as a Winner or Runner Up at the 2022 iGEM Grand Jamboree in Paris?	0.024124
Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022)	0.0008
Aug 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	0.019209
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.017677
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	0.003644
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	-0.01167
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM	How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?	0.036498
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	0.005787
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	0.092346
Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	0.016515
Jul 1, 2022 01:33PM	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	-0.008873
Jul 1, 2022 01:25PM	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.003052
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	-0.011462
Jun 4, 2022 04:00AM	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	-0.039831
Jun 2, 2022 01:40PM	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.104732
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.003481

Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM

In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)

0.001514

Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM

In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)

-0.000016

Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM

0.000927

Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM

0.000813

Oct 31, 2022 01:49PM

How many U.S. teams will be named as a Winner or Runner Up at the 2022 iGEM Grand Jamboree in Paris?