RAND Forecasting Initiative

Forecasted Questions

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 23, 2025 11:39PM
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	31%	4%	+27%	-13%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	60%	82%	-22%	+7%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	9%	13%	-4%	+6%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	1%	-1%	+1%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 05:33PM
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	7%	-3%	-1%
No	96%	93%	+3%	+1%