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He seems to have pretty well consolidated his power at home. Ukraine war going badly may make him less popular, but I think a coup or popular uprising are unlikely. Most likely route to ceasing to be president is probably death through illness. I haven't looked up the life tables, but I guess that 10% p.a. is the right ballpark for a sixty-odd male, so maybe a bit less than 5% for the 5 months to March. Guessing a bit higher to allow for unexpected stuff I haven't considered.