Apply to be a Pro Forecaster
Be part of a team forecasting the future for U.S. policymakers
INFER is currently accepting applications for our Pro Forecaster Program. Pros are paid to contribute forecasts each month, participate in training, and collaborate with other forecasters on the site.Apply About INFER
Who Can Apply?
Anyone with a background in biotechnology, synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Are you a practicing scientist, researcher, graduate student, or professor? U.S. policymakers want to get signals from you on future trends in these fields. Prior forecasting experience is not required.
Top-ranked forecasters on similar forecasting sites. Have you ranked in the Top 50 or better on a popular forecasting site, such as Metaculus and Good Judgment Open? Show us your track record to be considered as a Pro Forecaster on INFER. Ideally, you can show forecasting skill in one or more of the topics we cover on INFER, including high-risk geopolitical events, science, and technology.
About the Role of a Pro Forecaster
The primary role of a Pro Forecaster is to make and update forecasts, committing 8-10 hours per month to the activity at your convenience. As part of this commitment, we will ask you to:
Forecast weekly (preferred) or bi-weekly (at a minimum) to ensure that you are generating timely forecasts: this includes submitting new forecasts and updating prior forecasts to indicate how your perspective has changed;
Write thoughtful rationales consistent with forecasting best practices;
Forecast on questions for which we need data: we might ask you to focus on specific questions in a given month. Be vigilant about forecasting on questions that have less activity or are closing soon;
Stay up to date on the questions that are active on INFER and proactively find relevant information to inform your forecasts; and
Attend occasional virtual meetings and events with other INFER Pro Forecasters.
The Pro Forecaster Program is current accepting applicants for the 2023 season beginning Jan 1, 2023.
Maintaining Pro Forecaster Status
You will maintain Pro Forecaster status for the duration of the season so long as you continue to meet the monthly commitments as evidenced by your participation level. Pros who meet their commitment may be invited back for the next season.
Why Become a Pro?
Earned compensation - You will earn USD 200 per month for every month you complete as a Pro. You will receive compensation via direct deposit through Gusto (if you are based in the U.S.) or Veem (non-U.S.). Payments will be dispersed quarterly. There may also be opportunity for additional rewards.
Professional credentials - Your experience as a Pro Forecaster can be added to your professional resume, LinkedIn profile, and similar social platforms to boost your credentials.
Development of forecasting skill - INFER will be providing training for Pros, which will align with training that will also be offered to forecasters within the U.S. Government.
Contributions to government decision-making - Your forecasts will provide policymakers with insight into the science and technology landscape and contribute to the use of forecasting in critical government offices.
Invitations to exclusive Pro events - You will be invited to attend exclusive online Pro events with experts in security, Al, and other emerging technology fields. Pros will also be able to collaborate and network within their smaller teams and as a cohort through channels, such as dedicated Pro Discord server and forecasting meetups.
INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is a forecasting program to support U.S. Government policymakers. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. INFER will empower scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision making. The public portion of INFER (infer-pub.com) is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.
INFER is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.
How to Apply
Send an email to [email protected] that includes:
Brief explanation of why you want to be a Pro Forecaster
Your resume or link to your public LinkedIn profile
If you are applying as someone with a science or technology background: Brief description of your experience in these fields
If you are applying as a top-ranked forecaster on a similar site: Proof of your accuracy and participation from a forecasting site similar to INFER. For example, send us a screenshot or report showing your accuracy score/ranking, screename, and sample forecasts and commentary