Are you a top forecaster?
Apply to INFER's Pro Forecaster Program
INFER is a new forecasting program to support US Government policy decisions. INFER's Pro Forecaster Program is made up of 100 of the most accurate and engaged forecasters in our community. They are paid to contribute forecasts, participate in training, and collaborate with other Pros on the site.
Several spots have been reserved for experienced forecasters new to this community. Anyone who can show a proven track record as a top forecaster on Good Judgment Open, Metaculus, or a similar crowd forecasting site may apply. This season's program begins in February and runs through the end of 2022.
We accept applications on a rolling basis and accept applicants as new spots open up.Apply About INFER
The Role of a Pro Forecaster
The primary role of a Pro Forecaster is to make and update forecasts, committing 8-10 hours per month to the activity at your convenience. As part of this commitment, we will ask you to:
Forecast weekly (preferred) or bi-weekly (at a minimum) to ensure that you are generating timely forecasts: this includes submitting new forecasts and updating prior forecasts to indicate how your perspective has changed;
Write thoughtful rationales consistent with forecasting best practices;
Forecast on questions for which we need data: we might ask you to focus on specific questions in a given month. Be vigilant about forecasting on questions that have less activity or are closing soon;
Stay up to date on the questions that are active on INFER and proactively find relevant information to inform your forecasts; and
Attend occasional virtual meetings and events with other INFER Pro Forecasters and Ambassadors.
The Pro Forecaster Program runs from Feb.1 - Dec. 31, 2022.
Maintaining Pro Forecaster Status
You will maintain Pro Forecaster status for the duration of the season so long as you continue to meet the monthly commitments as evidenced by your participation level.
Why Become a Pro?
Earned compensation - You will earn USD 200 per month for every month you complete as a Pro. You will receive compensation via direct deposit through Gusto (if you are based in the US) or Veem (non-US). Payments will be dispersed quarterly.
Professional credentials - Your experience as a Pro Forecaster can be added to your professional resume, Linked In profile, and similar social platforms to boost your credentials.
Development of forecasting skill - INFER will be providing training for Pros, which will align with training that will also be offered to forecasters within the US Government.
Contributions to government decision-making - Your forecasts will provide policymakers with insight into the science and technology landscape and contribute to the use of forecasting in critical government offices.
Invitations to exclusive Pro events - You will be invited to attend exclusive online Pro events throughout the year with experts in security, Al, and other emerging technology fields. Pros will also be able to collaborate and network within their smaller teams and as a cohort through channels, such as dedicated Pro Slack workspace and forecasting meetups.
If you have additional questions about the Pro Forecaster program, please email [email protected].
INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is a forecasting program to support U.S. Government policy decisions. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. INFER will empower scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the US Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision making. The public portion of INFER (infer-pub.com) is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.
INFER is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.
How to Apply
Send an email to [email protected] that includes:
A brief explanation of your forecasting experience and why you should be a Pro Forecaster
Your resume or link to your public LinkedIn profile
Documented proof of your accuracy and participation from a forecasting site similar to INFER, such as Good Judgment Open, Metaculus, or Hypermind. Proof may include, for example, a screenshot or report showing your accuracy score/ranking, screename, and sample forecasts and commentary.
You must include all of the above in order to be considered.Apply now