Apply to be a Pro Forecaster
Be part of a team forecasting the future for U.S. policymakers.
Applications to the Pro Forecaster Program are accepted on a rolling basis throughout the season. Pros are paid to contribute forecasts each month, participate in training, and collaborate with other forecasters on the site.Apply About INFER
Who Can Apply?
While most Pro Forecasters are selected based on past performance on INFER, we reserve a few spots in each season’s cohort for Open Call applicants who meet the following criteria:
Top-ranked forecasters on similar forecasting sites. Have you ranked in the Top 50 or better on a popular forecasting site, such as Metaculus and Good Judgment Open? Show us your track record to be considered as a Pro Forecaster on INFER. Ideally, you can show forecasting skill in one or more of the topics we cover on INFER, including high-risk geopolitical events, science, and technology.
Anyone with a professional background or expertise in one of our priority forecasting topics. Are you an experienced practitioner, scientist, researcher, graduate student, or professor? U.S. policymakers want to get signals from you on future trends in these fields. Prior forecasting experience is not required.
About the Role of a Pro Forecaster
The primary role of a Pro Forecaster is to make and update forecasts, committing 8-10 hours per month to the activity at your convenience. As part of this commitment, we will ask you to:
Forecast weekly (preferred) or bi-weekly (at a minimum) to ensure that you are generating timely forecasts: this includes submitting new forecasts and updating prior forecasts to indicate how your perspective has changed;
Write thoughtful rationales consistent with forecasting best practices;
Forecast on questions for which we need data: we might ask you to focus on specific questions in a given month. Be vigilant about forecasting on questions that have less activity or are closing soon;
Stay up to date on the questions that are active on INFER and proactively find relevant information to inform your forecasts; and
Attend occasional virtual meetings and events with other INFER Pro Forecasters.
Applications to the Pro Forecaster Program are accepted on a rolling basis throughout the season.
Maintaining Pro Forecaster Status
You will maintain Pro Forecaster status for the duration of the season so long as you continue to meet the monthly commitments as evidenced by your participation level. Pros who meet their commitment may be invited back for the next season.
Why Become a Pro?
Earned compensation - You will earn USD 200 per month for every month you complete as a Pro. You will receive compensation via direct deposit through Gusto (if you are based in the U.S.) or Veem (non-U.S.). Payments will be dispersed quarterly.
Professional credentials - Your experience as a Pro Forecaster can be added to your professional resume, LinkedIn profile, and similar social platforms to boost your credentials.
Community - Learn alongside a team of highly accurate and passionate forecasters and grow your professional network. Pros will also collaborate as a cohort and within their smaller teams through dedicated channels, such as our Pro Discord server and forecasting meetups.
Development of forecasting skill - Pros will have access to forecaster training resources aiming to improve individual forecasting accuracy and hone best practices.
Contributions to government decision-making - Your forecasts will provide policymakers with insight into the science and technology landscape and contribute to the use of forecasting in critical government offices.
Invitations to exclusive Pro events - You will be invited to attend exclusive virtual events and forecasting meetups with global experts in science & technology and high risk-geopolitical topics.
INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is a forecasting program to support U.S. Government policymakers. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. INFER will empower scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision making. The public portion of INFER (infer-pub.com) is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.
INFER is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.
How to Apply
Send an email to [email protected] that includes:
Brief explanation of why you want to be a Pro Forecaster
Your resume or link to your public LinkedIn profile
If you are applying as someone with a background in one of our priority forecasting topics: Brief description of your experience in these fields
If you are applying as a top-ranked forecaster on a similar site: Proof of your accuracy and participation from a forecasting site similar to INFER. For example, send us a screenshot or report showing your accuracy score/ranking, screename, and sample forecasts and commentary