INFER's Pro Forecaster Program

2022 SeasonĀ 

The 2022 Pro Forecaster Program is made up of the 100 most accurate and engaged forecasters from INFER, as well as a few top forecasters with proven track records on similar forecasting sites. Pros are paid to make forecasts that contribute to INFER's mission in supporting U.S. Government policy decisions.

The Role of a Pro Forecaster

The primary role of a Pro Forecaster is to make and update forecasts, committing 8-10 hours per month to the activity at their convenience. As part of this commitment, we ask Pros to:

  • Forecast weekly (preferred) or bi-weekly (at a minimum) to ensure that they are generating timely forecasts: this includes submitting new forecasts and updating prior forecasts to indicate how their perspective has changed;

  • Write thoughtful rationales consistent with forecasting best practices;

  • Forecast on questions for which we need data: we might ask them to focus on specific questions in a given month. Be vigilant about forecasting on questions that have less activity or are closing soon;

  • Stay up to date on the questions that are active on INFER and proactively find relevant information to inform their forecasts; and

  • Attend occasional virtual meetings and events with other INFER Pro Forecasters and Ambassadors.

The Pro Forecaster Program runs from Feb.1 - Dec. 31, 2022.

Benefits & Rewards

  • Earned compensation - Pros will earn USD 200 per month for every month they complete as a Pro. They will receive compensation via direct deposit through Gusto (if they are based in the U.S.) or Veem (non-U.S.). Payments will be dispersed quarterly.

  • Professional credentials - Their experience as a Pro Forecaster can be added to their professional resume, Linked In profile, and similar social platforms to boost their credentials.

  • Development of forecasting skill - INFER will be providing training for Pros, which will align with training that will also be offered to forecasters within the U.S. Government.

  • Contributions to government decision-making - Their forecasts will provide policymakers with insight into the science and technology landscape and contribute to the use of forecasting in critical government offices.

  • Invitations to exclusive Pro events - They will be invited to attend exclusive online Pro events throughout the year with experts in security, Al, and other emerging technology fields. Pros will also be able to collaborate and network within their smaller teams and as a cohort through channels, such as dedicated Pro Slack workspace and forecasting meetups.

If you have additional questions about the Pro Forecaster program, please email [email protected].

About INFER

INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk, is a forecasting program to support U.S. Government policy decisions. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and high-risk geopolitical events. INFER will empower scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. The public portion of INFER (infer-pub.com) is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.

INFER is currently supporting U.S. Government policymakers, and will be run by the Applied Research Lab for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.

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