Started Feb 02, 2021 02:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $17.4 billion. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. 

The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. 

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.


Question clarification
Issued on 04/17/21 10:45pm
I've added this text to all applicable questions: "The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes." This question is an example of one in which the data has changed to a nontrivial extent during the lifetime of the question. The graph reflects the current data. The changes, though not trivial, do not change the shape of the historical trend; you can see them here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i-PvGnA9euRMdTw0rja-jX6fCJzCzU3DDOVq7pFw3Ek/edit#gid=1015093514
Resolution Notes

The answer is $38.4 billion.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $13 billion 3%
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive 12%
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion 43%
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion 31%
More than $25 billion 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 206
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.621
2.
-0.599
3.
-0.184
4.
-0.175
5.
-0.165

Consensus Trend

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