Started Mar 12, 2021 02:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. For 2021 Q1, the answer was 60,006. 

Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development.

Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. 

Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Question clarification
Issued on 04/17/21 10:01pm
Note that the value of 2021 Q1 is 60,006, a ~50% increase from 2020 Q4.
Resolution Notes

The answer is 133,599

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 70,000 7%
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive 22%
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 34%
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 26%
More than 130,000 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 277
Average for questions older than 6 months: 161
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.625
2.
-0.529
3.
-0.52
4.
-0.466
5.
-0.368

Consensus Trend

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