Started May 30, 2020 11:13PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the seven months ending July 31, 2020 were $280 billion. Data for those seven months are not included in the graph below. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Question clarification
Issued on 08/06/20 04:04pm
This question is limited to imports and exports of goods, as reported here by the U.S. Census Bureau here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html. It does not include services.
Resolution Notes

The answer is $560.1 billion.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $300 billion 3%
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive 25%
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion 60%
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion 10%
More than $750 billion 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.04
2.
-0.027
3.
-0.026
4.
-0.024
5.
-0.024

Consensus Trend

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