Started Jun 04, 2020 05:19PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas (Lynn Kuok, 2018). These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area (Spatial Source, 2018). The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies (USNI News). China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area (Andrew Erickson).

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.

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Question clarification
Issued on 07/01/20 09:18pm
We have clarified that this question includes firing by Chinese maritime security forces, such as the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia.
Seasons
Topics
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.96%
No 94.04%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 163
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 255
Average for questions older than 6 months: 152
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012
2.
-0.01
3.
-0.009
4.
-0.009
5.
-0.009

Consensus Trend

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