Started Jun 06, 2020 12:26AM UTC   •   Closed Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Show background information

Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security." 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:

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Resolution Notes

The actual value was 1.3%. For the data, see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NGdFBVc4nnIzwwVKbwScyIGYhzCv_zXKqoVkCzU7MX0/edit#gid=0

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.5% 13%
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive 49%
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% 23%
More than 1.5% 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
butterfly
-0.261
2.
bfitzgerald
-0.204
3.
jkel
-0.178
4.
rontho1992
-0.169
5.
mgahntz
-0.15

Consensus Trend

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