Started Sep 16, 2020 12:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Context. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is China’s leading chip manufacturer. In early September, a Department of Defense representative stated the Trump Administration was considering whether to add SMIC to the Commerce Department’s Entity List, which would force U.S. companies to obtain a license before they export to SMIC. Companies most impacted by the Entity Listing would be U.S. chip manufacturing equipment producers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA. The Entity List has become a commonly used tool in the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on whether the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 18.39%
No 81.61%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.1
2.
-0.085
3.
-0.075
4.
-0.072
5.
-0.071

Consensus Trend

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