Started Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?

Previous version. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 Q3 will be added to the graph below as soon as it's available.

Context. As the economic crisis deepens, large tech companies have so far demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations.

Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the second quarter of 2021 are publicly available. 

The graph below doesn't reflect data for 2020 Q3. Total revenue during that quarter is $265.7 billion.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Resolution Notes

The answer is $652.9 billion. Quarter-by-quarter results for each company are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xVPTJKwU0goh-XugJxWAS_9EWcZVQQV4iUfoNz08jQA/edit#gid=0

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $440 billion 3%
Between $440 billion and $490 billion, inclusive 8%
More than $490 billion but less than or equal to $540 billion 27%
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $590 billion 44%
More than $590 billion 18%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 102
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.345
2.
-0.242
3.
-0.241
4.
-0.231
5.
-0.173

Consensus Trend

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