Started Oct 09, 2020 12:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Context. The ratio of trade to GDP  -- sometimes referred to as "trade openness" -- is a common metric for how globally integrated a country's economy is. Comparisons between countries are complicated because a country's size and location affects its ratio. We're primarily interested in changes over time, e.g., if the United States becomes more economically isolated its trade-to-GDP ratio should decrease.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental organization whose 37 member countries share a commitment to democracy and a market economy. The United States is a prominent member of the OECD. To calculate the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD countries, we divide the sum of their trade by the sum of their GDP.

This question has an analogue that asks about the trade-to-GDP ratio of China, which is not a member of the OECD. You can view that question here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on OECD data. GDP data is from OECD's Quarterly National Accounts database. It's calculated using the expenditure approach and the VPVOBARSA measure: U.S. dollars, volume estimates, fixed PPPs, OECD reference year, annual levels, seasonally adjusted. Trade data (imports and exports of goods) is from OECD's International Trade MEI dataset. It's measured in U.S. dollars, seasonally adjusted.

This question resolves when GDP and trade data are available through June 30, 2021. Based on the historical data release schedule, that will likely be mid-August 2021.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Resolution Notes

The ratio is 1.06

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 0.07 10%
Between 0.07 and 0.08 25%
More than 0.08 but less than or equal to 0.09 39%
More than 0.09 but less than or equal to 0.1 18%
More than 0.1 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.528
2.
-0.387
3.
-0.261
4.
-0.234

Consensus Trend

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