What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Started Oct 22, 2020 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization.

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Question clarification
Issued on 11/17/20 10:09pm
A company's location is not the same as its headquarters. For example, Microsoft Asia is a China-based organization.
Resolution Notes

The answer is 15.2%

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 15% 8%
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive 19%
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% 32%
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% 27%
More than 21% 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 149
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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