Get to know INFER
This is your hub for the latest events and resources from the
program, including research on the science and practice behind crowdsourced forecasting.
Program news & events
- September 2022 Fireside Chat: Winning the Global AI Race
- August 2022 Pro Forecaster Meetup: Next Generation AI
- August 2022 Fireside Chat: How Synthetic Biology Will Shape the Future of U.S. Competitiveness
May 2022 Fireside Chat: Reasserting U.S. Leadership in Microelectronics
Newsletter (Pub Post)
- December 2022 It's a wrap on season one
- November 2022 IBM, Google, and U.S. patents help signal trends in quantum computing
- October 2022 Adoption of alternative fuels, quarterly reports, & future headlines
- September 2022 Synthetic Biology at the Pump, Upcoming Event, Training & More
- August 2022 Forecast the future of Synthetic Biology, watch the Fireside Chat, Pro tips, and more
- July 2022 The next generation of AI, ⚡FlashCast Thursday⚡, and more news
June 2022 Who's leading the AI race, and what's coming up on INFER?
- May 2022 Which country will dominate AI in the next 10 years?
- April 2022 Fireside Chat: Reasserting U.S. leadership in microelectronics, plus forecaster spotlights
- March 2022 Amazing chip race, China's exposure, plus $12K in rewards starts now!
- February 2022 Team challenge and new microelectronics questions
January 2022 INFER Launch Announcement
Blog (The Pub)
- Catch our latest blog posts here.
INFER Featured In
- Perry World House. (2022, June). A Roadmap to Implementing Probabilistic Forecasting Methods. The University of Pennsylvania.
- Carroll, C. (2022, April 28). Project Seeks the Wisdom—and Foresight—of the Crowd. Maryland Today.
- Ruhl, C. (2022, May 25). How Policymakers Can Build a Better Doomsday Clock. Lawfare Blog.
What is INFER?
Watch this 5-min explainer video!watch now
Learn about crowdsourced forecasting
- (2021, April 15). How Spooks Are Turning to Superforecasting in the Cosmic Bazaar. The Economist.
- Atanasov, P. (2020, October 20). How the Best Forecasters Predict Events Such as Election Outcomes. Scientific American.
- Epstein, D. (2019, June). The Peculiar Blindness of Experts. The Atlantic.
- Hutson, M. (2017, May 23). How to Train Yourself to be a More Rational Thinker. The Cut.
Research & Whitepapers
- Perry World House. (2021, February). Keeping Score: A New Approach to Geopolitical Forecasting. The University of Pennsylvania.
- Atanasov, P., Witkowski, J. et. al. (2020, September). Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.
- Simoiu, C., Sumanth, C. et. al. (2020). Studying the "Wisdom of Crowds" at Scale. AAAI.
- Mellers, B., Tetlock, P. et. al. (2019). Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments in The Future of Risk Management. University of Pennsylvania Press.
- Soll, J., Milkman, K., & Payne, J. (2014). A User’s Guide to DeBiasing. Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making.
- Saffo, P (2007, July - August). Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business Review.
- Tetlock, P. & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown.
- Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
- Surowiecki, J. (2005). The Wisdom of Crowds. Anchor.
- Moore, D. (2020). Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely. Harper Business.
- Duke, A. (2018). Thinking in Bets. Portfolio.
- Lewis, M. (2016). The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds. W. W. Norton & Company.
- Ellenberg, J. (2014). How Not to Be Wrong. Penguin Books.
- Tetlock, P. (2015). A Short Course in Superforecasting. Edge Master Class.
- Cultivate Labs. Ultimate Guide to Crowdsourced Forecasting and Prediction Markets.