Get to know INFER
This is your hub for the latest events and resources from the program, including research on the science and practice behind crowdsourced forecasting.
Program news & events
INFER News
- February 2023 INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration with UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
- January 2023 Congratulations to INFER’s Best of 2022
- Read our 2022 newsletters here.
Blog (The Pub)
- Catch our latest blog posts here.
INFER Featured In
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A Roadmap to Implementing Probabilistic Forecasting Methods. The University of Pennsylvania. (2022)
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Project Seeks the Wisdom—and Foresight—of the Crowd. Maryland Today. (2022)
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How Policymakers Can Build a Better Doomsday Clock. Lawfare Blog. (2022)
Webinar Events
- September 2022 Fireside Chat: Winning the Global AI Race
- August 2022 Pro Forecaster Meetup: Next Generation AI
- August 2022 Fireside Chat: How Synthetic Biology Will Shape the Future of U.S. Competitiveness
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May 2022 Fireside Chat: Reasserting U.S. Leadership in Microelectronics
Getting started with forecasting?
Tips for making your first forecast
learn more
Quick explainer video on INFER
Learn about crowdsourced forecasting
News Articles
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How Spooks Are Turning to Superforecasting in the Cosmic Bazaar. The Economist. (2021)
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How the Best Forecasters Predict Events Such as Election Outcomes. Scientific American. (2020)
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The Peculiar Blindness of Experts. The Atlantic. (2019)
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How to Train Yourself to be a More Rational Thinker. The Cut. (2017)
Research & Whitepapers
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Keeping Score: A New Approach to Geopolitical Forecasting. The University of Pennsylvania. (2021)
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Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. (2020)
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Studying the "Wisdom of Crowds" at Scale. AAAI. (2020)
- Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments in The Future of Risk Management. University of Pennsylvania Press. (2019)
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A User’s Guide to DeBiasing. Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. (2014)
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Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business Review. (2007)
Books
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown. (2015)
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Thinking Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. (2011)
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The Wisdom of Crowds. Anchor. (2005)
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Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely. Harper Business. (2020)
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Thinking in Bets. Portfolio. (2018)
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The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds. W. W. Norton & Company. (2016)
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How Not to Be Wrong. Penguin Books. (2014)
Other
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A Short Course in Superforecasting. Edge Master Class. (2015)
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Ultimate Guide to Crowdsourced Forecasting and Prediction Markets. Cultivate Labs.