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We will send curated monthly forecast summaries and real-time alerts when notable changes occur in our crowd's forecast (usually 1-2 per month.)

Forecast Topics

What We Are Currently Forecasting

Working with various stakeholders in the U.S. Government, we are currently forecasting critical science and technology issues and high risk geopolitical events.

Competitiveness in AI

AI Global Competition

Which countries will take the lead in AI research, microelectronics, software development, and growing and retaining the human capital they need to compete effectively in AI? Read more ...


Geopolitical Events

U.S. leadership in microelectronics is critical for leading in AI. Will the U.S. regain a lead in microelectronic technologies? Read more...

Synthetic Biology

Synthetic Biology's National Security Implications

Coming soon: Synthetic biology presents a variety of opportunities, as well as risks. As the technology continues to mature and the number of market-ready applications grows, it is important for policymakers to forecast the large number of opportunities while simultaneously understanding the likelihood of negative implications and risks.

Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change Impacts

Coming soon: Climate change can increase geopolitical risk in a myriad of ways. Population growth, declining water resources, rising sea levels, and extended droughts can drive structural changes in affected countries' economies and demographics. What impact will that have on U.S. security?


INFER, short for "INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk," is a forecasting program with an ecosystem of crowdsourced forecasting platforms. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and geopolitical events for U.S. Government policymakers. INFER empowers scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decisionmaking. INFER is led by RAND.


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RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit

Cultivate Labs transforms the way decisions and policies are made in private sector organizations, governments, and research institutions around the world. By using their online forecasting platform to leverage the wisdom of a diverse, informed crowd to make forecasts, Cultivate Labs gives decision makers a more accurate and un-biased view of the future, leading to more impactful and profitable decisions.

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