fionack
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2023 09:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (+5%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2023 to Nov 30, 2023

Didn’t catch this was a rolling question so updating since it’s certainly above 0 over the next month. Israel seems to still be leaning towards increasing the intensity rather than decreasing but claims the main goal is releasing hostages faster so perhaps if that occurs a ceasefire is possible. Release of all the hostages also doesn’t appear likely right now either though. Will update higher if there is any news indicating otherwise. 

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