Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?

Started Oct 12, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC

Intense fighting has broken out following an attack on Israel by Hamas (CNN, The Guardian, AP News).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using official announcements or news media reports that Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The cessation of fighting without a negotiated agreement will not count toward resolution. 

Question clarification
Issued on 10/13/23 10:54pm
So long as both parties publicly acknowledge the ceasefire and agree to its terms, credible news reporting will be sufficient to resolve. A ceasefire announced by both sides unilaterally, as in 2009, would result in the question resolving as “Yes”. The agreement must last more than 24 hours and apply to all military engagement between Hamas and Israel. The question will be resolved based on the date of the agreement rather than the date the ceasefire goes into effect.
Resolution Notes

Israel and Hamas agreed to a 4-day ceasefire on 22 November 2023 (CBS, AP News).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 66.18%
No 33.82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 382
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Oct 12, 2023 07:00PM UTC - Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC 66%

Consensus Trend

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