Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
Started
Oct 12, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Closed Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Seasons
Intense fighting has broken out following an attack on Israel by Hamas (CNN, The Guardian, AP News).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using official announcements or news media reports that Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The cessation of fighting without a negotiated agreement will not count toward resolution.
This question is a resolved time period from Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66.18% | |
| No | 33.82% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 141 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 382 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 217 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
