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Geopolitics

Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC (2 years)
From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.

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Type

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From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?

6%

Chance
7 Forecasters • 7 Forecasts
Started Aug 11, 2022 08:30PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?

2%

Chance
15 Forecasters • 15 Forecasts
Started Aug 11, 2022 08:30PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?

76%

Chance
16 Forecasters • 18 Forecasts
Started Aug 04, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?

58%

Chance
33 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC

What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?

21 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister
13%
A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister
69%
A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister
3%
A coalition government is not formed
15%

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

72%

Chance
41 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC

Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?

4%

Chance
70 Forecasters • 176 Forecasts
Started Apr 28, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?

3%

Chance
76 Forecasters • 209 Forecasts
Started Apr 21, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?

28 Forecasters • 77 Forecasts
Started Apr 21, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 200
16%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
46%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
23%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
9%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
5%
More than or equal to 1000
3%
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