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International Diplomacy & Conflict

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC (8 months)

From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.

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Crowd Forecast

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 14 · 17

3%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 20 · 24

Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Closing May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 37 · 82

100%

Chance

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 16 · 23

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 9 · 10

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 59 · 98

9%

Chance

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Closing Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 55 · 102

26%

Chance

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Closing Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 52 · 100

16%

Chance

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 62 · 133

82%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 59 · 183

7%

Chance