Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Started Apr 15, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC

Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has heightened fears that they may target other neighboring countries (RAND). As members of NATO on Russia’s border, the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are of particular concern (Carnegie Endowment, CATO Institute). Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been bolstering their defenses in an effort to deter invasion (Sky News). Belgium's Chief of Defence recently warned that Russia’s pivot to a war economy may lead to it opening a second front in the Baltics (Euronews). 

Resolution Criteria:

For the purposes of this question, an invasion is a significant deployment of Russian military forces (e.g., ground troops, armored vehicles, artillery, and/or air support operations) across the border into the territory of one of the listed countries. The Russian forces must engage in offensive actions against the country's military, including armed clashes, bombardment of targets, or attempts to seize and hold territory within the country.

If either of the following conditions are met for a listed country on or before 1 April 2027, that country will be considered invaded and forecasts for that country will be resolved (but forecasting will remain open for the other countries):

  • The Russian Federation announces the deployment of troops into one of the listed countries in an attack that qualifies as an invasion. For reference, see Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the invasion of Ukraine (Atlantic Council, Business Insider). Note that an announcement from Russia does not need to call the attack an invasion to count toward resolution.
  • Any three of the other four permanent members of the United Nations Security Council issue statements acknowledging the attack and deployment of forces into one of the listed countries as an invasion, an act of war, a violation of national sovereignty, or another similar term. For reference, see statements made by the U.S., United Kingdom, and France on the invasion of Ukraine. Note that China, the fifth permanent member of the UN Security Council, declined to call Russia’s attack on Ukraine an invasion (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs). 

Note that you are required to provide forecasts for each of the four countries, but your forecasts need not sum to 100%, since any or all of them may be correct.
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