Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Started Mar 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 12 months

This question is part of a pair of questions forecasting the probability of war between Israel and Hezbollah. Click here to forecast the probability that Israel declares war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months.

Cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified since Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 and could continue even if a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is reached (AP News). While these attacks have yet to escalate into an all-out war, Israel’s defense minister recently warned that the situation may be approaching a critical point (Reuters). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Israel declares war on Hezbollah or makes an equivalent statement (e.g., announcing the opening of a new front against Hezbollah or officially authorizing “significant military steps” against Hezbollah similar to the authorization against Hamas). For reference, Israel’s cabinet declared war on Hamas on 8 October 2023 (AP News, CRS, Al Jazeera).
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