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Iran: Threats & Influence

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (2 years)

Forecasting questions related to Iran's nuclear development, foreign relations, and influence on violent non-state actors.

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Crowd Forecast

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 80

55%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 33 · 43

20%

Chance

Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 34 · 65

55%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 67 · 85

3%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 59 · 73

2%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 57 · 74

2%

Chance

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 29 · 47

25%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 58 · 149

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 70 · 170

2%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 214

8%

Chance