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Iran: Threats & Influence
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC
(2 years)
Forecasting questions related to Iran's nuclear development, foreign relations, and influence on violent non-state actors.
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Iran Nuclear Program (10)
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
46
·
80
55%
Chance
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
33
·
43
20%
Chance
Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
34
·
65
55%
Chance
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
67
·
85
3%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
59
·
73
2%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
57
·
74
2%
Chance
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
29
·
47
25%
Chance
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
58
·
149
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
70
·
170
2%
Chance
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
77
·
214
8%
Chance
1
2
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