Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Started Apr 15, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC

Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has heightened fears that they may target other neighboring countries (RAND). As part of Russia’s “near abroad” region (i.e., post-Soviet states), Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan could all be targets for invasion by Russia (SAIS, Carnegie Endowment, Foreign Policy). 

Resolution Criteria:
For the purposes of this question, an invasion is a significant deployment of Russian military forces (e.g., ground troops, armored vehicles, artillery, and/or air support operations) across the border into the territory of one of the listed countries. The Russian forces must engage in offensive actions against the country's military, including armed clashes, bombardment of targets, or attempts to seize and hold territory within the country.

If either of the following conditions are met for a listed country on or before 1 April 2027, that country will be considered invaded and forecasts for that country will be resolved (but forecasting will remain open for the other countries):

  • The Russian Federation announces the deployment of troops into one of the listed countries in an attack that qualifies as an invasion. For reference, see Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the invasion of Ukraine (Atlantic Council, Business Insider). Note that an announcement from Russia does not need to call the attack an invasion to count toward resolution.
  • Any three of the other four permanent members of the United Nations Security Council issue statements acknowledging the attack and deployment of forces into one of the listed countries as an invasion, an act of war, a violation of national sovereignty, or another similar term. For reference, see statements made by the U.S., United Kingdom, and France on the invasion of Ukraine. Note that China, the fifth permanent member of the UN Security Council, declined to call Russia’s attack on Ukraine an invasion (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs). 

Note that you are required to provide forecasts for each of the four countries, but your forecasts need not sum to 100%, since any or all of them may be correct.

Question clarification
Issued on 04/18/24 08:07pm
Regarding Transnistria, there has been a consistent Russian military peacekeeping presence in the region since 1992. While Transnistria declared independence from Moldova in 1990 and has sought to be annexed by Russia, it has not been recognized by the international community and is still considered part of Moldova. A Russian invasion of Transnistria (for example, by deploying troops in a military operation to annex the region), would be considered an invasion of Moldova for the purposes of this question. Additionally, if war were to break out between Transnistrian separatists and the Moldovan government, Russia sending in troops to support the separatists (similar to their support for South Ossetian and Abkhazian separatists against Georgia in 2008) would also be considered an invasion of Moldova.
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