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International Diplomacy & Conflict
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months)
From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Closing
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
544
·
1984
0%
Chance
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
137
·
676
55%
Chance
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
113
·
613
29%
Chance
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
100
·
415
2%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
97
·
406
5%
Chance
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
96
·
474
0%
Chance
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
91
·
468
4%
Chance
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
88
·
547
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
86
·
532
4%
Chance
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
82
·
588
1%
Chance
1
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3
4
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