Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Started Nov 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months

The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). Militant groups in the region have already started launching rocket and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria (AP News) The U.S. responded with airstrikes targeting the militias in eastern Syria, and the militias responded with a drone attack against U.S. forces in western Iraq (AP News, New York Times). U.S. government officials have warned Iran to stop the attacks, but Iranian officials claim that the attacks are from groups that oppose “the U.S. presence in the region” and are the result of “wrong American policies” (Time, Times of Israel).

Iran previously launched a ballistic missile attack against U.S. troops in Iraq in 2020 in retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani (AP NewsBBC).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if U.S. Government officials (e.g., the President or Department of Defense officials) state with reasonable confidence that Iran has launched missiles or conducted an airstrike targeting U.S. forces. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as statements from the U.S. government officials indicate that they were targeting U.S. forces. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 01/05/24 09:36pm
An attack on an unmanned aerial vehicle (i.e., a drone) will not be sufficient for resolution.
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