INFER Report and Alert Archive

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Alert Reports

INFER issues Alert Reports for questions that have had significant movement in the consensus forecast. These reports highlight the forecast changes and explain reasons for the recent changes, including forecaster rationales and newsworthy events. 

Date Report
November 2022 INFER Alert Report: China Integrated Circuit Production
September 2022

INFER Alert Report: Brothers of Italy Party

July 2022

INFER Alert Report: Semiconductor Fab Plans

May 2022

INFER Alert Report: Protests and Riots in Russia

About INFER

INFER, short for "INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk," is a forecasting program with an ecosystem of crowdsourced forecasting platforms. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and geopolitical events for U.S. Government policymakers. INFER empowers scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. INFER is run by the non-profit Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.

The Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland. ARLIS is one of 14 U.S. Department of Defense University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs). ARLIS builds robust analysis in the "human domain," focusing on three research areas: Human and Sociotechnical Systems; AI, Automation, and Augmentation; and Advanced Computing and Emerging Technologies.


Cultivate Labs transforms the way decisions and policies are made in private sector organizations, governments, and research institutions around the world. By using their online forecasting platform to leverage the wisdom of a diverse, informed crowd to make forecasts, Cultivate Labs gives decision makers a more accurate and un-biased view of the future, leading to more impactful and profitable decisions.

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