INFER Snapshot Report Archive

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Issue Reports

INFER’s Issue Reports are snapshots compiled for stakeholders interested in a topical issue that has been decomposed into a set of relevant forecast questions, which highlight the directional movement of that issue.

Date Report
Jan 2024 Iran regional influence: How will Iranian influence on violent non-state actors develop in the near future?
Jan 2024 Iran nuclear program: Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? 
Dec 2023  Iran regional influence: How will Iranian influence on violent non-state actors develop in the near future?
Dec 2023  Iran nuclear program: Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? 
Nov 2023 Iran regional influence: How will Iranian influence on violent non-state actors develop in the near future?
Nov 2023 Iran nuclear program: Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? 
Oct 2023

Iran nuclear program: Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon?

Jun 2023

Supply chains: Will there be significant disruption to the semiconductor supply chain?

Jun 2023
Disinformation: How will AI impact disinformation campaigns?
Q4 2022 (Oct-Dec)
Synthetic Biology: Will synthetic biology fundamentally transform the way the U.S. competes in the oil & gas industry?
Q3 2022 (Jul-Sep)
Synthetic Biology: Will synthetic biology fundamentally transform the way the U.S. competes in the oil & gas industry?
Q3 2022 (Jul-Sep) AI: Which countries will become more competitive in AI research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade?
Q3 2022 (Jul-Sep) Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology?
Q2 2022 (Apr-Jun)

Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology?

Q2 2022 (Apr-Jun)

AI: Which countries will become more competitive in AI research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade?

Apr 2022 Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology?
Mar 2022 Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology?

Geographic Reports

INFER issues regular snapshot reports to government stakeholders covering forecast trends on elections, diplomatic efforts, and other political events across the globe. The reports are published below by recency and organized by geographic region.

Date Report
Sep 2023 Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa) | Full report
Aug 2023 Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa)
Jul 2023 Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa)
Jun 2023

Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa)

Alert Reports

INFER issues Alert Reports for questions that have had significant movement in the consensus forecast. These reports highlight the forecast changes and explain reasons for the recent changes, including forecaster rationales and newsworthy events. 

Date Report
Jan 2023 Protests & Riots in Lebanon
Nov 2022 China Integrated Circuit Production
Sep 2022

Brothers of Italy Party

Jul 2022

Semiconductor Fab Plans

May 2022

Protests and Riots in Russia

About INFER

INFER (INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk) uses crowdsourced forecasting to generate early warning and signals about the complex future that policy and decisionmakers must act upon. It involves an ecosystem of forecasting platforms that aggregate the diverse perspectives of a global community inside and outside the U.S. government. INFER is led by RAND with support from Cultivate Labs. 

RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit rand.org/about.


Cultivate Labs transforms the way decisions and policies are made in private sector organizations, governments, and research institutions around the world. By using their online forecasting platform to leverage the wisdom of a diverse, informed crowd to make forecasts, Cultivate Labs gives decision makers a more accurate and un-biased view of the future, leading to more impactful and profitable decisions.

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