INFER issues Alert Reports for questions that have had significant movement in the consensus forecast. These reports highlight the forecast changes and explain reasons for the recent changes, including forecaster rationales and newsworthy events.
|November 2022||INFER Alert Report: China Integrated Circuit Production|
INFER issues quarterly reports for our stakeholders which detail each forecast question within a particular decomposition, along with the overall meaning to the strategic question. You can Subscribe for free to receive these reports too as soon as they are published.
|Q3 2022 (July-September)||Synthetic Biology: Will synthetic biology fundamentally transform the way the U.S. competes in the oil & gas industry ? (Q3: July-September 2022)|
|Q3 2022 (July-September)||AI: Which countries will become more competitive in AI research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? (Q3: July-September 2022)|
|Q3 2022 (July-September)||Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology? (Q3: July-September 2022)|
|Q2 2022 (April-June)|
|Q2 2022 (April-June)|
|April 2022||Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology? (April 2022)|
|March 2022||Microelectronics: Will the U.S. regain and retain a two-generation lead in microelectronic technology? (March 2022)|
INFER, short for "INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk," is a forecasting program with an ecosystem of crowdsourced forecasting platforms. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and geopolitical events for U.S. Government policymakers. INFER empowers scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. INFER is run by the non-profit Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.
The Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland. ARLIS is one of 14 U.S. Department of Defense University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs). ARLIS builds robust analysis in the "human domain," focusing on three research areas: Human and Sociotechnical Systems; AI, Automation, and Augmentation; and Advanced Computing and Emerging Technologies.
Cultivate Labs transforms the way decisions and policies are made in private sector organizations, governments, and research institutions around the world. By using their online forecasting platform to leverage the wisdom of a diverse, informed crowd to make forecasts, Cultivate Labs gives decision makers a more accurate and un-biased view of the future, leading to more impactful and profitable decisions.