INFER Report and Alert Archive
Subscribe to Receive Our Latest Reports Make a Forecast to Include In Our Reports
For informal commentary about our forecasts and other analysis, be sure to visit our Blog, "The Pub"
Geographic Reports
INFER issues regular reports to government stakeholders covering elections, diplomatic efforts, and other political events across the globe. The reports are published below by recency and organized by geographic region.
| Date | Report |
|---|---|
| Aug 2023 | Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa) |
| Jul 2023 | Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa) |
| Jun 2023 |
Asia-Pacific | Europe-Eurasia | Near East (Mid-East and N. Africa) |
Issue Reports
INFER’s Issue Reports are compiled for stakeholders interested in topical issues that have been decomposed into a set of relevant forecast questions, which highlight the directional movement of that issue.
Alert Reports
INFER issues Alert Reports for questions that have had significant movement in the consensus forecast. These reports highlight the forecast changes and explain reasons for the recent changes, including forecaster rationales and newsworthy events.
| Date | Report |
|---|---|
| Jan 2023 | Protests & Riots in Lebanon |
| Nov 2022 | China Integrated Circuit Production |
| Sep 2022 | |
| Jul 2022 | |
| May 2022 |
About INFER
INFER, short for "INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk," is a forecasting program with an ecosystem of crowdsourced forecasting platforms. It is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and geopolitical events for U.S. Government policymakers. INFER empowers scientists, researchers, analysts, and hobbyists from inside and outside the U.S. Government to have a direct impact on policy and decision-making. INFER is run by the non-profit Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding for this program has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.
The Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland. ARLIS is one of 14 U.S. Department of Defense University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs). ARLIS builds robust analysis in the "human domain," focusing on three research areas: Human and Sociotechnical Systems; AI, Automation, and Augmentation; and Advanced Computing and Emerging Technologies.
Cultivate Labs transforms the way decisions and policies are made in private sector organizations, governments, and research institutions around the world. By using their online forecasting platform to leverage the wisdom of a diverse, informed crowd to make forecasts, Cultivate Labs gives decision makers a more accurate and un-biased view of the future, leading to more impactful and profitable decisions.