Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Started
Aug 24, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Tags
Seasons
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA”, or “Iran nuclear deal”) is an agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council–China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States–plus Germany) that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program (CFR).
After the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, Iran breached multiple limits set by the agreement (Arms Control Association). The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds force, prompted Iran to further reduce compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA (NPR, Politico). While Iran has not officially withdrawn from the JCPOA, it has stopped the implementation of its nuclear-related commitments and significantly limited monitoring of its nuclear-related facilities (IAEA GOV/2023/24). The United States and Iran had been in discussions to restore both parties to full compliance with the deal, but negotiations appear to have stalled (Al Jazeera, VOA).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using news media reports and announcements from the Iranian government that Iran is withdrawing from the JCPOA. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024 and indicate that Iran is leaving the JCPOA, not just ignoring limits or commitments under the deal. Leaving the JCPOA as part of signing a new nuclear deal with countries party to the JCPOA will not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.