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Iran: Threats & Influence

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (1 year)

Forecasting questions related to Iran's nuclear development, foreign relations, and influence on violent non-state actors.

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Crowd Forecast

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 60 · 111

9%

Chance

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 73 · 207

14%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 64 · 232

4%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 81 · 480

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 96 · 474

0%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 91 · 468

4%

Chance

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 113 · 613

29%

Chance

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Closing Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 74 · 464

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 86 · 532

4%

Chance

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 55 · 329

3%

Chance