Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Started Aug 03, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

The war in Ukraine has deepened the diplomatic relationship between Russia and Iran, expanding the arms trade between the two nations (RFERL, Newsweek). In March 2023, Iran reported that a deal had been reached on the sale of Su-35 fighter jets, and recent reports suggest they may be seeking to purchase the S-400 missile (Reuters, VOA, Jerusalem Post). Such systems have the potential to shift the balance of power in the Middle East and shore up Iran’s ability to defend against preemptive strikes (Foreign Policy, Forbes, Jamestown). However, recent news suggests that the Su-35 deal may have collapsed and that Iran is no longer pursuing the advanced missile system (Eurasia Times, Force Index). 

Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved using credible, open source media reports. Delivery of any version of the S-400 or S-500 missile systems, or the SU-35 fighter jet will count. If there are conflicting reports about whether delivery has taken place, the INFER team will assess all open source evidence to determine whether a qualifying event has occurred.

Note that the sum of your forecasts on the missile system and fighter jets need not equal 100%.

Additional Reading: 

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
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