By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Started Jul 27, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

Nuclear weapons require 90% or higher enriched uranium (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation). Iran promised to curtail uranium enrichment to less than 4% as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”), but it stepped back from these commitments in retaliation for attacks on Iranian leaders and the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement (Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Institute of Peace). Following the U.S.' withdrawal, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran remained participants in the JCPOA. 

Although Iran has increasingly limited monitoring and verification of its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to report on its JCPOA commitments (Reuters, Politico). In February of 2023, it reported that it had found particles containing up to 83.7% enriched uranium (IAEA, NBC).

Resolution Criteria:
The question will be resolved based on IAEA reports about Iran’s nuclear program, which are posted here. The IAEA report must indicate that the IAEA found uranium particles containing 90% or more U-235 at an Iranian nuclear facility.  

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
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