Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Started Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 1 year

After Hamas’ attack on 7 October 2023, concerns that a broader regional war could follow increased substantially (EU Council on Foreign Relations, Axios). Recent attacks in the region, both on Iran and by Iranian proxies on other targets, have raised concerns that a regional war will break out with Iran at its center (ABC, USIP, Semafor). However, some believe that such a war in the region wouldn’t suit Iran’s interests, and is thus unlikely despite rising tensions (CNN, New York Times). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Iran declares war on another country, Iran’s senior political or military leaders (e.g., the Supreme Leader, the President, a commander of one of Iran’s Armed Forces, etc.) state that they are at war with another country, or if another country declares war on Iran. Military activity without such a declaration or statement will not count towards resolution. Iran lending military support to another country or organization engaged in war will also not count towards resolution unless Iran engages in warfare directly. Military engagement between Iran and non-state entities will not count towards resolution. 
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