Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Started Sep 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

In 2019, Iran began breaching multiple limits set by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, including the 3.67% limit on uranium enrichment and limits on stockpiling (Arms Control Association). Since then, Iran has increased its uranium enrichment capacity and began enriching uranium to 60%, which is close to the 90% needed to produce a nuclear weapon (United States Institute for Peace).

As of 19 August 2023, the IAEA estimates that Iran has stockpiled 121.6 kg of 60% U-235 (i.e., uranium enriched up to 60%) in the form of UF6 and 2.0 kg of 60% U-235 from sources other than UF6 for a total of 123.6 kg (see paragraphs 50 and 52 of the Sept 2023 IAEA Board Report). This represents an increase of 7.5 kg since May 2023 (May 2023 IAEA Board Report).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board Reports. The “Enriched Uranium Stockpile” section of the Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015) reports contain the IAEA’s verified or estimated stockpile of enriched uranium. 

This question will be resolved as “Yes, the stockpile will be reduced to 0 kg” if the IAEA reports that Iran has completely eliminated its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. If Iran has not eliminated its stockpile by 31 December 2024, the question will be resolved using the IAEA’s estimated or verified size of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile in the last relevant IAEA report or statement of 2024. The amount by which the stockpile has or has not been reduced will be calculated by summing the quantity of uranium from UF6 and the quantity from sources other than UF6, and comparing it to the total amount estimated in the IAEA’s report released on 14 September 2023: 123.6 kg.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 02/09/24 10:02pm
Any uranium enriched to a level beyond 60% will still be considered part of the stockpile for the purposes of this question. For example, if the IAEA reports start to include estimates of Iran's stockpile of 90% U-235 alongside estimates of 60%, 20%, 5% and 2% U-235, the question will be resolved using the sum of the 90% and 60% estimates.
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