Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Started Jul 20, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

Since its establishment in 1948, the state of Israel has faced many challenges to its legitimacy from its Arab and Muslim neighbors. In 1979, Egypt became the first of these states to officially recognize Israel, followed by Jordan in 1994, and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco in 2020 (Jewish Virtual Library). The regional competition between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran has led to not only numerous discussions on the status of the various Arab Gulf States in terms of which side of this “conflict” they support, but also whether Saudi Arabia would also recognize Israel as a legitimate state. Despite the conflict over Israeli statehood, many of these countries are united in their opposition to Iran's military ambitions (Washington Institute, Reuters), with some arguing that coordination is needed to confront the challenges Iran poses to regional stability (Foreign Policy, Crisis Group).

The normalization of relations with Israel by some Arab countries in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords, along with improving relations with Saudi Arabia, may suggest that further recognition may be on the horizon (Al Jazeera, CNN). However, President Biden’s recent comments that “we're a long way” from a normalization agreement between and Israel and Saudi Arabia and mixed signals from Oman (criminalizing contact with Israelis in December 2022 then opening airspace to Israeli civilian airlines in February 2023) suggest that recognition may still be further off (Reuters, Times of Israel, Reuters).

Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using official announcements from the relevant countries granting recognition of Israel’s statehood. An agreement establishing full diplomatic relations between Israel and one of the listed countries would also count towards resolution for that country, as it entails recognition. Note that probabilities for all countries need not sum to 100%, and multiple answers can be correct.  

Additional Reading: 
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
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