Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Window 6 months
Despite international efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program, concerns remain that both the level of enrichment and the amount of stockpiled fissile material lay the groundwork for development of a nuclear weapon (VOA, Fox). In addition to highly enriched uranium, ballistic missiles are needed to deliver nuclear warheads to its target, and Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East (Jerusalem Post, United States Institute for Peace). Consequently, their missile program is seen as a nuclear threat by many of its neighbors, including Israel who has threatened military action to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon (Reuters). Although Israel has said that no attack is imminent, they have emphasized their ability to strike at facilities deep within Iran (Reuters, AP News).
- By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
- What is Iran’s current nuclear activity? (Council on Foreign Relations)
- Iran and Nuclear Weapons Production (Congressional Research Service)
- The Iran Primer: Iran's Ballistic Missile Program (United States Institute of Peace)
- The Iranian Missile Threat (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
- Iran Missile Overview (Nuclear Threat Initiative)
Iran Admits Serious Damage to Natanz Nuclear Site, Setting Back Program (New York Times)
- New Iranian Nuclear Facility Not Immune from Attack (AP News)
- Could Netenyahu attack Iran’s nuclear Program? It’s not so easy (European Leadership Network)