Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Started Aug 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC

Despite international efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program, concerns remain that both the level of enrichment and the amount of stockpiled fissile material lay the groundwork for development of a nuclear weapon (VOA, Fox). In addition to highly enriched uranium, ballistic missiles are needed to deliver nuclear warheads to its target, and Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East (Jerusalem Post, United States Institute for Peace). Consequently, their missile program is seen as a nuclear threat by many of its neighbors, including Israel who has threatened military action to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon (Reuters). Although Israel has said that no attack is imminent, they have emphasized their ability to strike at facilities deep within Iran (Reuters, AP News).

Resolution Criteria: 
Reputable open source media will be used to assess whether a nuclear or missile-related facility in Iran was attacked. Missile-related facilities are those used for missile production, research and development, storage, targeting, or launch. 

Cyber attacks (e.g., Stuxnet or the 2019 cyber attack on Iranian missile systems) and kinetic attacks (e.g., the 2020 bombing of a Parchin missile facility) will count towards the resolution of this question, as will attacks described as sabotage (e.g., the April 2021 Natanz attack). Cyber attacks must target the nuclear or missile-related facility to count, so incidental impact to a facility from a cyber attack against other targets would not count towards resolution. Attacks on a missile that has been launched (e.g., an Iranian missile being shot down by another country’s missile defense system), would not count. The perpetrator of the attack does not need to be named or confirmed, but open source media should describe the event as an attack not as an accident. For attacks on unconfirmed facilities, the INFER team will consult news reports and other reputable sources to determine whether the site is used for the missile production, research and development, storage, targeting, or launch.

Related Questions:

Additional Reading:

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 11/09/23 06:04pm
Attacks on Iranian military vehicles (e.g., warships, aircraft, etc.) will not count towards resolution.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 29.34%
No 70.66%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 113
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 631
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Aug 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC - Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC 7%
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC - Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC 12%
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC - Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC 29%

Consensus Trend

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