Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Started May 05, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999. However, Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian). He swiftly squashed domestic criticism and protests from Russian citizens, but it is unclear how his hold on power will be affected by a prolonged war or the devastating economic and financial sanctions that have been levied against him, Russian oligarchs, and the Russian country (Al Jazeera, The New York Times)   

This question will be resolved using  reputable news media reports.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.09%
No 98.91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 548
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 2016
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006581
2.
-0.006571
3.
-0.00657
4.
-0.00654
5.
-0.006449

Consensus Trend

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