Confirmed previous forecast
0.062576
Relative Brier Score
306
Forecasts
33
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 18 | 98 | 1084 | 306 | 1169 |
| Comments | 2 | 10 | 40 | 24 | 55 |
| Questions Forecasted | 18 | 37 | 95 | 45 | 109 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 10 | 79 | 33 | 98 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(-2%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
small update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
High chance (90%+) that Rafah happens. Can't/won't be a ceasefire until at least after that.
Probability of ... between (now) and May 31 = 0% --> 0%
Probability of ... between June 1 and July 30 = 1% --> 0.49%
Probability of ... between July 1 and Dec 1 = 5% --> 3.51%
Files
Perhaps a bit aggressive by me to say there "can't" be a ceasefire --
I just see it as highly, highly unlikely (less than 0.5%).
Right now, I see Israel as trying to get the global community on its side (or at least, to step aside or look the other way), so that they can go into Rafah.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
slight bump down
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
94%
(0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-3%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
96%
(+3%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Re-calibrating after an apparent end to recent dust up
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
79%
(-19%)
Yes
21%
(+19%)
No
Re-calibrating as there wasn't (at least reported) a cyberattack during the recent dust up.
Files
Seeing some news about a ceasefire offer, but, when reading a bit more closely [Emphasis Added]:
... I don't buy it (yet) that Israel would agree to this. Seems more like a head-fake (i.e. we tried to do everything we could, but Hamas just wouldn't come to terms, so we have to continue on and move into Rafah).