Perspectus

So, I'm both well below fellow "Pros" on this one and the crowd. While the headlines make folks want to jump into heavy positions for "Kharkiv" (see here), but it's worth noting that there's a distinction between the Kharkiv REGION (or Oblast) and Kharkiv the CITY.

Looking at @DimaKlenchin's post (here) can help. You can see the map showing "Kharkiv" -- that's the "city." The arrows are showing Russia's advancing into the Oblast (or Kharkiv Region). So, all these headlines showing that Russia is "in" Kharkiv or advancing in Kharkiv are just referring to the Oblast.

Now, shifting gears to whether Russia will launch an offensive on the city  -- certainly, that's a possibility, but remember that the criteria we're looking for includes significant ground forces (such as infantry, tanks, and artillery) with the objective of seizing territory and defeating the enemy through direct combat.

I can't see a reasonable argument (yet) for being 80%+ on this. Is Russia advancing -- yes. It's also possible they are advancing in a way to draw the UA to defending this area, so that Russia can then redirect energy to a different front (i.e. Art of War).