Only a most remote chance. Never happened before. May have been close couple times but not in Kiev and those were attacks on military. Russia does not intentionally target civilians. If you doubt it, compare Kiev with Gaza City.
-0.28269
Relative Brier Score
184
Forecasts
76
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 57 | 340 | 184 | 340 |
| Comments | 2 | 19 | 102 | 47 | 102 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 27 | 57 | 41 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 19 | 225 | 76 | 225 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Short of Iran announcing itself a nuclear power (which I argued elsewhere it can't in 2024), I am not seen anything at all how exiting this "deal" makes any sense for Iran. And I do think Iran behaves very rationally (including the latest exchange with Israel). So, dropping one extra point for passage of time and my increased skepticism.
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Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Apr 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 49
5%
(-2%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Affirm
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Affirm
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Affirm
Files