One month left. Presidential elections are scheduled to be held on the 28th of July, far enough out to not significantly affect this question. Bloomberg has been posting a "Coffee con Leche Index" since 2016 that tracks the cost of a cup of coffee at a bakery in Caracas. The idea is that it tracks a common item and is not prone to manipulation. For years Venzuela was experiencing hyper inflation. In the last year, the inflation on a cup of coffee, was 48%. In the last 6 months, the rise in price was 9%, and in the last 3 months, it had dropped to an annualized inflation rate of just 3%. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-venezuela-cafe-con-leche-index/?terminal=true#:~:text=We%20called%20it%20the%20Bloomberg,an%20increase%20of%2048%20percent.
The US is trying to chart a moderate path with Venezuela at the moment.
I'm increasing from 1% to 2%. @DKC posted about the possibility of the US and Saudi Arabia doing a direct agreement regarding security, a civilian nuclear program, and AI cooperation. This would cut Israel out of the deal. With the current state of the war and sentiments in Jerusalem and Gaza, moving towards a 2 State solution seems unlikely in the near future. The US is putting pressure for Israel not to attack Rafah, but as long as hostages are still held and the core of Hamas remains, it is will be extraordinarily difficult for Israel to cease operations for more than a brief pause. The move to by the US to bypass Israel in a possible deal with SA is a sign that they see the US does not see a quick resolution to the conflict. The incentives for SA to resume the normalization process with Israel are too low as long as the humanitarian catastrophe continues.