For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Started Apr 14, 2023 08:30PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

For each of the 5 quarters listed, enter the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will drop below 40%. Note that probabilities across the quarters need not sum to 100%, and multiple answers can be correct.  


The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors and a critical supplier of the cutting-edge chips needed to produce everything from cars and computers to medical equipment and other modern electronics (Time, SIA). Consequently, interruptions in the U.S.’ ability to acquire semiconductors from Taiwan would have a devastating impact on supply chains (Forbes). 


This question will be resolved using TSMC’s Quarterly Management Reports, which can be found on their Financial Results page. Click on the relevant year and quarter, then click the document labeled “Management Report.” The percentage of revenue coming from North America is listed in the “Revenue Analysis” section of the report under “Net Revenue by Geography.” You can find the 2022 Q4 Management Report here. Quarterly data from 2018-2022 is provided below:

Quarter % Revenue from North America
2022 Q4 69%
2022 Q3 72%
2022 Q2 66%
2022 Q1 64%
2021 Q4 66%
2021 Q3 67%
2021 Q2 64%
2021 Q1 67%
2020 Q4 58%
2020 Q3 59%
2020 Q2 58%
2020 Q1 60%
2019 Q4 59%
2019 Q3 60%
2019 Q2 69%
2019 Q1 60%
2018 Q4 69%
2018 Q3 60%
2018 Q2 53%
2018 Q1 59%
This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.

Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
2023 Q2 0%
2023 Q3 0%
2023 Q4 0%
2024 Q1 1%
2024 Q2 1%
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