PeruforecastSacredvalley

According to recent Putin’s statements about creating a “sanitary zone” around Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, which borders Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast, indicate this intention.  https://frontnews.eu/en/news/details/76429

https://theprint.in/world/putin-mulls-establishment-of-sanitary-zone-in-ukraine/2005055/

From:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/17/kharkiv-at-risk-of-becoming-second-aleppo-without-us-aid-mayor-ukraine-russia

So, my hypothesis is based on the premise that Putin will try to find a way to secure more land to the north west, probably this year.

Due to recent set of events related to:

The russian hostilities: The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has verified 29,579 civilian casualties in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15559.doc.htm

US Senate approved nearly $61B of Ukraine foreign aid, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8035

The EU establishing a dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/03/18/ukraine-assistance-fund-council-allocates-5-billion-under-the-european-peace-facility-to-support-ukraine-militarily/

Also, NATO countries, including the U.S., UK, and France, have deployed small numbers of special forces and military advisers to Ukraine, likely for logistical support and training purposes; 

All the above menctioned data makes me evaluate the hypothesis that Russia might not take the risk to engage with NATO given the funding provided to Ukraine, it would be very expensive and would also provide a reason for NATO to proceed with a full scale intervention in the given timeframe.