INFER Public

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2024	Jul 8, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	81%	+19%	-2%
No	0%	19%	-19%	+2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 01:48AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025	Jul 19, 2024	13%	+85%	-4%
No	2%	Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025	Jul 19, 2024	87%	-85%	+4%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	5%	5%	+0%	-2%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	95%	94%	+1%	+3%
More than or equal to 3000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q1	0%	1%	-1%	0%
2024 Q2	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	4%	-4%	-1%
No	100%	96%	+4%	+1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:36PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
No	95%	92%	+3%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:36PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:36PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	80%	+10%	+1%
No	10%	20%	-10%	-1%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 01:36PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024	May 25, 2024	6%	-5%	-1%
No	99%	Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024	May 25, 2024	94%	+5%	+1%

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