Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Started Jun 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

“Provenance" refers to the record of something's origin and history of ownership, and in a technological context, provenance can be used to verify the authenticity and integrity of digital content (The Bit). Because digital provenance shows where content came from, who created it, and how it has been edited over time, widespread adoption of provenance standards has the potential to become a critical tool for combating disinformation (Stanford Internet Observatory, NSCAI Report).

The Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) is a standards organization with the goal of enabling "global, opt-in, adoption of digital provenance techniques […] while meeting appropriate security and privacy requirements, as well as human rights considerations” (C2PA Explainer). C2PA was founded by Adobe, Microsoft, Truepic, Arm, Intel, and the BBC to develop a common content provenance standard and combine the work of the previously established Content Authenticity Initiative and Project Origin (Adobe). The New York Times, CBC/Radio Canada, and BBC are all listed as members of the C2PA (C2PA Membership).


Resolution Criteria:  
This question will resolve “Yes” if the New York Times, CBC, or BBC makes an announcement or publicly changes their policies (e.g., updating the BBC’s Policies and Guidelines) requiring all new photos or videos published online to contain digital provenance (whether through C2PA or another digital provenance standard). If the announcement or policy change only applies to a section of reporting (e.g., Politics or Business) or if it only applies to reporting for a region (e.g., U.S. or World News), the question will still resolve “Yes.”

Question clarification
Issued on 06/08/23 04:35pm
If the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announces that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance, but the provenance will only be viewable on a specific platform (e.g., in a particular app, on the desktop version of the site, etc.), the question will still resolve "Yes".
Issued on 02/22/24 08:53pm
If the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announces that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance and that this policy change will go into effect at a later date, the question will be resolved as "Yes", as long as the announcement is made on or before 31 May 2024.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 187
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 1025
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.074579
2.
-0.072137
3.
-0.072078
4.
-0.070084
5.
-0.069416

Consensus Trend

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