cmeinel

Egypt is working hard at a ceasefire, Israel needs Egypt's continuing support,

Dateline 4-26-2924 Egypt’s president dispatched his intelligence chief to Israel on Friday in a last-ditch effort to revive talks toward a cease-fire in Gaza that would also free Israeli hostages and hold off a planned Israeli military offensive against Hamas in the city of Rafah.

Abbas Kamel, Egypt’s chief of general intelligence, is leading a delegation that was set to meet with David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, and an array of other top Israeli officials.

The talks are a last-minute attempt to negotiate a stop to the fighting in Gaza as Israel prepares to launch an assault on Rafah, a city on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt, where more than a million Palestinian civilians are sheltering in the vicinity. Israeli officials have said in recent days that they are moving forward with the offensive soon, without specifying the timing of the attack.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/egypt-sends-negotiators-to-israel-fearing-time-is-running-out-for-rafah-91624dd4

Passage of time.

Influenced by the time series data analysis of @martinsluis here https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/127120.

Affirming given reporting by @DKC on damage and recovery after the big earthquake here https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/126371.

Increasing substantially based upon reporting by @DKC on prospects for Indonesia here https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/126945.

Also, the Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas/Houthi axis is widely hated and feared by the leaders of Muslim-majority nations.

Both Israel and Hamas are hardening their positions, each acting as if they believe they are winning, whatever winning might be in this context.

Dateline 4-25-2024 Israel is planning to advance a military operation aimed at taking the southern Gaza city of Rafah, a final Hamas stronghold in the enclave, Egyptian and former Israeli officials said on Wednesday. President Joe Biden warned Israel last month that invading Rafah—where hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians have fled—would cross a “red line.” Israel reportedly intends for the military operation to roll out in phased, targeted attacks, rather than a full-scale offensive, after evacuating civilians from the area.

Hamas is still holding nearly 130 hostages in the Gaza Strip—several of whom are dual Israeli-American citizens—but it’s unclear how many of those hostages are still alive. Hamas released a highly edited propaganda video on Wednesday featuring 23-year-old American-Israeli hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin reading a statement pressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cut a deal with the terrorist group to free the remaining hostages. Hamas brutally kidnapped Goldberg-Polin from the Nova music festival on October 7 and blew off much of his left arm in a grenade explosion. It was unclear exactly when the video was filmed, though Goldberg-Polin said he had been held for nearly 200 days.

Source: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/morning/ftc-non-compete-ban-sparks-legal-challenge/

Following @ScottEastman and @PeterStamp given their time series data analyses. Thank you both!

Going with the base rate of zero plus 1% for Cromwell's rule of statistics.

narrowing probabilities as the forecast horizon nears.

Going way down given dissension inside Israel's war cabinet.

1) Netanyahu is deeply unpopular and faces prison when he loses power.

2) The average length of an Israeli government since independence is 1.8 years.  Therefore, war cabinet members are already jockeying to become the next prime minister.