60th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 12, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 80%
No 20% 20%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 12, 2024 01:47PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 2%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 2%
Saudi Arabia 3% 5%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 13, 2024 04:33AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 4%
No 96% 96%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 13, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 2%
No 95% 98%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 14, 2024 11:42PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 4%
No 100% 96%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 15, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025 Jul 15, 2024 6%
No 92% Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025 Jul 15, 2024 94%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 19, 2024 01:25AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024 May 19, 2024 16%
No 95% Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024 May 19, 2024 84%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 19, 2024 01:27AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 May 19, 2024 21%
No 93% Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 May 19, 2024 79%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 19, 2024 03:21AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 25% 14%
Armenia 0% 2%
Georgia 6% 6%
Kazakhstan 6% 2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 19, 2024 03:33AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 1%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%
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