Forecasted Questions
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts
37 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 19, 2024 02:32PM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 19, 2024 02:32PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024 | Jun 19, 2024 | 14% | -13% | -4% |
| No | 99% | May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024 | Jun 19, 2024 | 86% | +13% | +4% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 19, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 19, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 37% | 51% | -14% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 19, 2024 05:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 19, 2024 05:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024 | Jun 19, 2024 | 3% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 90% | May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024 | Jun 19, 2024 | 97% | -7% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 20, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
May 20, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | May 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Jun 20, 2024 | 15% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 87% | May 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Jun 20, 2024 | 85% | +2% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 20, 2024 06:55PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
May 20, 2024 06:55PM UTC
(2 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | May 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2024 | Jun 20, 2024 | 13% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 89% | May 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2024 | Jun 20, 2024 | 87% | +2% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 20, 2024 08:22PM UTC
(41 minutes ago)
May 20, 2024 08:22PM UTC
(41 minutes ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |