INFER Public

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 07:25AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	3%	-1%	-1%
No	98%	97%	+1%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 04:02PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	3%	8%	-5%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	7%	11%	-4%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 04:04PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	May 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2024	Jun 8, 2024	10%	+1%	+1%
No	89%	May 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2024	Jun 8, 2024	90%	-1%	-1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 09, 2024 01:23PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024	Aug 9, 2024	7%	+3%	+0%
No	90%	May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024	Aug 9, 2024	93%	-3%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 09, 2024 01:23PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	0%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	0%	4%	-4%	-1%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	100%	95%	+5%	+1%
More than or equal to 3000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 09, 2024 01:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	100%	99%	+1%	+0%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 09, 2024 01:26PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024	Jun 9, 2024	3%	-1%	+1%
No	98%	May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024	Jun 9, 2024	97%	+1%	-1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	7%	4%	+3%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	93%	95%	-2%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 10:53AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
No	99%	96%	+3%	+0%

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel

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