Forecasted Questions
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 10:53AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 11, 2024 10:53AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 11:07AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 11, 2024 11:07AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | May 11, 2024 to Nov 11, 2024 | Jun 11, 2024 | 2% | +0% | -3% |
| No | 98% | May 11, 2024 to Nov 11, 2024 | Jun 11, 2024 | 98% | +0% | +3% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 12, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 80% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 20% | 20% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts
31 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 13, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 01:12PM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 14, 2024 01:12PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 15, 2024 01:47AM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 15, 2024 01:47AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 96% | +4% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts
39 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 15, 2024 01:51AM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 15, 2024 01:51AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 11% | -10% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 89% | +10% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 15, 2024 02:30AM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 15, 2024 02:30AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | May 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025 | Aug 15, 2024 | 7% | +6% | +1% |
| No | 87% | May 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025 | Aug 15, 2024 | 93% | -6% | -1% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 15, 2024 02:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 15, 2024 02:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 4% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 87% | 96% | -9% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 17, 2024 11:00AM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 17, 2024 11:00AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 19% | 14% | +5% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 11% | 8% | +3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |